Last November (2023) Mark Gurman suggested that Apple could be working on their own cellular modems.
You can be forgiven for not really caring about this…. but I thought it was interesting.
I have a theory on why this could potentially be quite an important development – maybe more important than Apple Pay.
Back when Mark made his initial prediction, I made a small prediction that Apple will exploit this beyond just creating a chip.
eSim
To make this happen, Apple will utilise the eSim technology.
Apple has already moved into the eSim world with its iPhone and Watch range – instead of having a physical sim card in your device, you can load a data file (an oversimplified explanation) – this can act like a physical sim in conjunction with cellular chip in your device.
Apple currently have various different device configurations where eSim is available. These options allow upto 2 active eSims at once. with additional 6 saved on the device, meaning a single iPhone can have 8 in total.
Currently eSims are stored directly on a chip within the device, meaning if you would like to move your eSim to a new device you will need to get a new QR code.
Devices
Importantly, the devices won’t just be you iPhones and Apple Watches. These chips with eSim capabilities will be build into every, single, device. Including iPads, MacBooks, iMacs, and maybe even Apple TVs
iCloud
Apple’s iCloud service offers syncing and backup features between Apple devices using an Apple Account.
Day to day this is useful where you might have an iPad, iMac or even a MacBook for having a shared centralised photo library, music library, or even just messaging.
This will be relevant soon.
Apple Carrier
Apple wants a slice of everything, if you use Apple Pay they get a slice of the pie, buy apps or content? Apple also gets a slice. Listen to Apple Music? Apple gets a slice too. It’s only natural that Apple will be looking for ways to take a slice of the mobile service.
To do this, I predict Apple will be their own Mobile Virtual Network Operator (MVNO). This will allow them to look like a carrier without actually needing to build towers and physical infrastructure.
The physical infrastructure will be leased out and provided by one of the existing operators. These will then connect back to Apples datacentre where all the networking is done for the data.
Essentially, your provider will be Apple.
iCloud+
Back to iCloud…
If you are already an iCloud user, Apple probably already has your personal details, such as name and address along with card details. This is especially true if you are also an Apple Pay user.
Apple will incorporate the subscription for their data service directly into iCloud.
Personal Plan
This will mean that your primary phone, will automatically be assigned a data slot, and have access to the internet without a traditional carrier subscription.
I can envisage Apple also incorporating options for enabling this service for iPad and MacBooks. Quite simply, an additional service within iCloud can provide automatic eSim data service across any device with your iCloud username and password.
Family Plans
iCloud already has family plans built in where you can share storage allowance and purchases/services across the family.
It would be great if the service is also available to families through the sharing method. Meaning a single line can provide data service across the entire family.
Once we get this far, I would imagine Apple will have a limit on number of individuals per plan, and a data cap per family pool. With options to scale up and down on both slots and data allowances.
Example 4 Individuals with 500gb data per month, combined.
It would be nice to have unlimited data, but I can’t ever see this happening…. (also more on data allowances below…)
Roaming
One of the benefits of Apple running their own carrier, and likely across the world, is the ability to access other providers and get favourable deals across the globe.
Apple can pass these savings onto their customers, much more than what traditional providers can offer.
After all, as a network provider you wouldn’t turn down Apple. Otherwise your competitors will just say yes.
With this, roaming and traveling to other countries becomes so simple. There effectively is no roaming. Apple can provide a local sim automatically to your devices within the subscription.
Allowances & Costs
Noted above, It really would be nice if Apple had an unlimited plan, but that would then be potentially open for abuse across the subscription. A single iCloud plan an have multiple devices where a single sim can only service one device at a time.
To bridge the gap, I can see Apple offering a per GB/TB plan across all devices within the iCloud plan. Personal or Family.
Data is cheap across the world. Even at a resell, I can see around £10/$10 per 250gb. This might be more expensive than what you currently pay, but this would be valid across multiple devices, or family members.
Zero Rating
Not everything will incur a data allowance cost.
Across the traditional carriers, it has not been uncommon for services such as Facebook and Spotify to be zero rated.
Meaning Apples other staple subscriptions such as iCloud Drive, Apple Music, Photo Library, Apple TV etc. Will be zero-rated. Listening to music on your phone won’t eat into the allowance on your carrier plan. Sharing photos across the entire family won’t cost you anything.
Anything else..?
Well to be honest I could go on, I think the potential of Apple integrating a carrier service directly into their core products really is a game changer.
I could go further and talk about Apple TV or even a new Airport to provide internet access to all devices, not just Apple, Starlink…. but I will leave it here for now.
Certainly some big guesses in this quick post, lets see how many come true.